shot from the hip

scott smith, of changeist, gaven interesting talk at LIFT08 on foresight tools and perspectives. notes are below. i would embed the video on my blog, or link to it specifically, however i don’t use the edit CSS option for this blog (this might be a good reason to change this perspective), and the site is in flash.. so no direct link… all the videos are available here.

what is foresight?

keeping your mind and your eyes aware of the periphery as well as what’s in the immediately linear future, as there’s always something that could disrupt your path.

the future is here, just not widely distributed

…it’s hiding in little places or pockets that we may not be aware of.
…normal adoption cycles look at quantitative data rather than the softer, more subjective qualitative datas

…there emerges a need to blend internal and external perspectives, the ‘objective’ and the ’subjective’…

trends driving forces events black swans

AND

wants needs fears goals

• a human exercise in which the goals will be experienced by ppl – insight and intuition need to be resolved with logic and rationality.
• tools of both ethno/socio/anthro (soft sciences) and engineering, comp sci (hard sciences)

how?

• get out on the street
• journey, autobiography
• observe and talk about human behaviour

seek out the tripwires to the future – such as generation y

• looking back, the baby boom was future facing, had an abundance after the war, cultivated change in social and institutional power balances, had the aspirations to go to the moon, etc, etc.
• their kids, gen Y, were the first gen for which digital tech was a common part of their lives – a fundamental part of their lives.
• In research identifying what was going on in their ‘digital’ lives – question transitioned to “was what’s going on in your lives?”, no separation in the perception and experience. Generation Y has a mobile fluidity: fluid in their relationships, actions, goals, decisions, etc.

also:

• we see increased occurrence of massively parallel emotion – group experiences of shared emotional experiences (9/11, london/etc)
• Spatial information disorientation will displace info overload (non-linear perception, across space and time)

near future survival guide

• be aware
• scan collect organize
• look for patterns and deep currents
• understand the role of values
• have a view but not an ideology
• stay grounded
• leave the artifacts of your experience behind